For the Philippines, 2026 promises to be a roller-coaster ride of political intrigue as President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and his deputy lock horns in an existential clash that risks tanking the economy, dividing military loyalties and derailing Asean’s regional diplomacy.
“It will be a very messy year both in politics and the economy,” Philippine Congressman Edgar Erice told This Week in Asia.
A showdown now seems all but inevitable: Vice-President Sara Duterte enters 2026 with an approval rating of 56 per cent and a trust rating of 54 per cent, according to December polling – a commanding 20-point lead over Marcos, whose ratings languish at 34 and 32 per cent, respectively.
Analysts say those numbers translate into a plausible pathway to the presidency for Duterte at the next election in 2028, a pathway that Marcos appears determined to block.
It is their “ora de peligro”, according to economic risk analyst Jonathan Ravelas – distilling the political peril into a common Filipino expression, derived from Spanish, that translates to “hour of danger”.
The two camps are preparing for mutually assured destruction. Both face threats ranging from impeachment complaints and criminal prosecutions to military intervention, set against a backdrop of the economy’s weakening fundamentals, shifting loyalty networks and unforeseen natural disasters.
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